Dubai's Real Estate Market Faces 20% Decline in 2026: Danube Group's Anis Sajan

Anis Sajan, the Vice Chairman of Danube Group, one of the largest real estate companies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has forecasted a 20% decline in Dubai’s real estate market for the year 2026. According to Sajan, this decline is primarily due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Despite this forecast, he remains optimistic about the market's resilience and potential for a strong recovery.

Sajan addressed rumors of a steep decline in property prices following regional turmoil. He stated, “Yes, sales have taken a hit since tensions broke out in the region. Last year, Dubai's real estate market grew about 20%. This year (2026), I expect a 20% degrowth.” He further explained, “Buyers have gone into wait-and-watch mode. The number of units we used to sell out in one month now takes us three months. Going forward, our focus will be on completing existing projects and selling them off, rather than launching one after another.”

Dubai’s real estate market has demonstrated significant growth over the past decade, recovering from the downturn in the mid-2010s and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The market achieved record transaction volumes and values, driven by investor influx and policy support. Official data from the Dubai Land Department (DLD) and related reports highlight surges in prices, sales, and investments.

In 2025, Dubai’s real estate sector recorded its strongest performance to date, with over 270,000 transactions worth AED 917 billion ($250 billion), a 20% increase from the previous year. Sajan noted that while top builders have not seen major price corrections, distress selling has emerged in the secondary market. Cash-strapped builders are offering discounts to generate funds for project completion and to meet bank obligations.

“The 7-8% annual price rises we used to see are not happening now. Prices remain stable for the moment. Top builders are offering incentives and launching new projects to drive sales and sustain momentum,” Sajan explained.

Danube Properties recently launched Greenz By Danube, its first large-scale integrated community featuring premium townhouses and villas, marking a significant milestone in its expansion into master-planned developments. Prices for these properties start at AED 3.5 million.

Sajan dismissed reports that Indian buyers are fleeing Dubai’s property market as “completely misleading.” He emphasized, “For many developers, including Danube, Indians remain one of our biggest buyer bases. They're not leaving Dubai—they see it as the safest place with all global amenities. High rental yields of 6-10% and property price appreciation continue to attract them.”

A significant concern for developers in recent months has been a 20% surge in building material prices, which is expected to impact their bottom line by 1-1.5%. However, Sajan noted a positive trend for Danube’s material business. “April was the best month as there have been so many launches and everyone needs material to build. We recorded our highest sales and highest profit for the building material business last month,” he said.

Despite the challenges, Sajan remains confident in the market’s ability to overcome the current downturn and continue its trajectory of growth and stability.