Geopolitical Tensions Impact India’s Housing Market: Sales Dip 7% QoQ in Q1 2026

The ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia have begun to reflect in India’s housing market, with sales witnessing a sequential decline in the first quarter of 2026. According to a research report by ANAROCK, housing sales across the top seven cities fell 7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q1 2026, highlighting the impact of global uncertainties on buyer sentiment.

Approximately 1,01,675 units worth ₹1.51 lakh crore were sold during the quarter, compared to around 1,08,970 units worth ₹1.60 lakh crore in Q4 2025. However, on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the market showed resilience, with sales rising 7% over Q1 2025, when about 93,280 units worth ₹1.42 lakh crore were sold. In value terms, sales declined 5% QoQ but increased 6% annually.

City-wise, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Bengaluru continued to dominate the market, accounting for nearly 48% of total housing sales in Q1 2026. Chennai recorded the steepest quarterly drop of 18% in sales, though it also posted the highest annual growth of 31%, indicating a sharp recovery from a low base.

New housing launches saw a marginal 2% QoQ increase to approximately 1,26,265 units in Q1 2026, compared to 1,23,835 units in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, launches surged 26%, reflecting continued developer confidence. MMR and Bengaluru together accounted for 51% of total new supply. While MMR saw a 6% sequential rise in launches and Bengaluru recorded a 7% increase, Hyderabad stood out with a sharp 46% jump in new supply. In contrast, Chennai, NCR, Kolkata, and Pune witnessed declines of 28%, 17%, 10%, and 9%, respectively.

With new launches beginning to outpace sales, unsold inventory levels have started inching up again. Available inventory across the top seven cities rose 4% QoQ and 7% YoY to approximately 6,01,210 units by the end of Q1 2026, compared to 5,76,620 units at the end of Q4 2025. Among cities, Bengaluru recorded the highest quarterly increase in unsold stock at 12%, followed by Hyderabad at 7%.

Commenting on the trend, Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Group said, “While India’s residential segment’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, the short-term tremors of the Iran war were clearly visible in the first quarter. The 7% dip in sales tracks the war-induced uncertainty, with sentiment and sales clearly affected by surging oil and construction prices—particularly in March.” He added that a significant number of Middle Eastern investors, who are key contributors to Indian real estate demand, have temporarily paused investments amid the ongoing conflict.

“Another key trend this quarter is that new launches have started outpacing sales, reversing the post-pandemic pattern when sales were usually higher. As a result, unsold inventory has increased both sequentially and annually,” Puri noted.

A closer look at supply trends indicates a continued shift towards premium housing. In Bengaluru and Hyderabad, over 70% of new launches were priced above ₹1.5 crore. NCR also saw a strong premium bias, with 53% of new supply priced above ₹2.5 crore. Meanwhile, markets such as Pune, Chennai, and Kolkata continued to see a larger share of mid-segment and affordable housing launches.

Overall, while the Indian housing market continues to demonstrate long-term strength, the Q1 data suggests that global geopolitical risks and cost pressures may weigh on near-term momentum, even as developers push ahead with new supply.