GST Cuts to Boost Auto Demand: Real Estate, Trent, and Banks Poised for Comeback

The momentum in Indian markets is back, and investors may soon see a broad-based revival led by automobiles, real estate, and select banking names, according to market expert Nischal Maheshwari. He believes that the GST rate cuts and the government’s reform-driven consumption push will drive stronger numbers in the coming quarters, while short-term blips in retail and FMCG are “temporary.”

Maheshwari said Trent’s muted retail numbers were largely due to customers postponing purchases ahead of the GST cut. “I’m not disappointed with Trent; the GST impact was visible in the last 15 days. The company’s 25% growth guidance is still achievable in the second half,” he said. “Titan’s numbers were strong, driven by higher gold prices, but at current valuations, I’d stay cautious,” he added.

Despite a correction in Trent, Maheshwari sees the stock as worth accumulating at current levels, while Titan’s rally may be near-term capped due to high valuations.

On the FMCG front, Maheshwari said temporary volume disruptions at Godrej Consumer, HUL, and Dabur were expected as the market adjusted to the GST transition. “Around 10-12 days of sales got postponed, but volumes should bounce back strongly in Q3 and Q4 once old stock clears and GST benefits pass through,” he said. He expects consumption and volume growth to pick up meaningfully in the second half of FY26.

Turning bullish on the real estate sector, Maheshwari said lower interest rates, improving affordability, and government incentives could revive housing demand. “I was sceptical earlier this year, but now I’m turning positive. With rates trending lower and several reforms in place, this is a good time to accumulate quality realty names,” he said.

Calling autos the “biggest GST beneficiary,” Maheshwari said the impact would be more pronounced in the four-wheeler segment, given the higher ticket sizes and percentage cuts. “Four-wheelers will benefit most, followed by two-wheelers, which will also see festive and wedding season demand,” he said. “We’re already hearing very strong commentary from automakers like Mahindra & Mahindra for record September sales.”

Commenting on Tata Motors, Maheshwari acknowledged the production hit at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) due to a cyberattack but said domestic demand would offset short-term weakness. “The JLR disruption is concerning, but I don’t see much downside for Tata Motors. Numbers should strengthen over the next two quarters,” he said.

Maheshwari remains bullish on the banking sector, especially IndusInd Bank, calling it a “buy-on-dips” candidate for long-term investors. “A lot of bad news is already priced in. Even if the new management cleans up the books further, it’s a good accumulation opportunity,” he said. He also expects larger banks like HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank to perform better in the coming quarters as credit growth improves and margins stabilise. “NIM pressures are behind us. With credit growth picking up and asset quality stable, large banks should see good action from here on,” he added.

Key takeaways: - Retail & FMCG: Temporary GST impact, recovery expected in Q3-Q4. - Autos: GST cuts to fuel strong four-wheeler sales. - Real estate: Turning positive with lower rates and reforms. - Banks: Credit growth improving; IndusInd and large banks well-placed. - Market view: Buy-on-dips strategy continues for quality stocks.