India's Housing Market Set for Rapid Growth, Luxury Demand Surges
Home prices in India are set to increase faster than earlier expected, driven largely by demand in the premium and luxury segments, while the affordable housing supply remains constrained, according to the latest Reuters poll of property analysts. The survey, conducted between August 14 and September 12 with 20 real estate experts, found that average home prices are forecast to rise 6.3% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026. This marks a sharp acceleration from the 4.0% increase recorded in 2024 and exceeds earlier June estimates of 6.0% and 5.0% for the two years, respectively.
India’s residential property values have more than doubled over the past decade, reflecting steady demand in major urban centres. However, while Asia’s third-largest economy expanded by 7.8% in the last quarter, gains from economic growth are not evenly distributed. Wealthier homebuyers are fueling demand in high-end projects, while middle- and lower-income households are increasingly priced out of ownership and forced into costly rentals.
Analysts noted that India faces an estimated shortfall of around 10 million affordable homes, with consultancy Knight Frank projecting that the deficit could triple by 2030 if current trends persist. Ajay Sharma, Managing Director of Valuation Services at Colliers, observed that macroeconomic growth has not translated into higher disposable incomes for households at the lower end of the pyramid. This has kept homeownership out of reach for millions, particularly in urban centres, and led to a growing dependence on rental housing.
The poll showed that urban rental rates are expected to rise between 5% and 8% over the next year, outpacing consumer inflation. This shift is being driven by young professionals and families seeking proximity to city centres for work and education, despite limited affordability for ownership. Some experts highlighted that affordability has deteriorated significantly in both city cores and suburban markets. As demand for rental accommodation rises, competition is pushing rents higher, leaving fewer options for first-time home seekers.
The Reserve Bank of India has reduced its key policy rate by 100 basis points this year to 5.50%, aiming to ease borrowing costs. However, analysts said the cuts are unlikely to make a meaningful difference, as the rapid pace of home price appreciation offsets lower interest payments. Avneesh Sood, director at Delhi-based Eros Group, pointed out that while mortgage payments may become marginally more manageable, property prices are climbing 7% to 8% nationally, with sharper increases recorded in the National Capital Region and Bengaluru. This has effectively cancelled out the benefits of lower borrowing rates.
The findings underscore the persistent affordability challenge in India’s housing market. Pankaj Kapoor of Liases Foras remarked that the qualifying age for purchasing a home has increased significantly in recent years, with many buyers now entering the market only after the age of 40. Experts also cautioned that unequal access to land and capital is reinforcing structural imbalances, leaving the majority of aspiring homeowners with limited or delayed entry into property ownership.
With luxury housing driving most of the growth and affordable stock lagging, analysts expect the divergence between high-end demand and mass-market needs to widen further, shaping India’s housing market dynamics in the years ahead.
