India's Retail Real Estate Set to Capture 30% Market Share by 2030
The Indian retail real estate sector is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a fragmented market to a highly organized, institutional asset class. According to JLL reports, the sector is projected to capture 30-40% of India’s total REITs market by 2030. Between 2025 and 2030, India’s retail sector is expected to witness its largest ever infusion of mall supply, with approximately 60.9 million square feet of new retail space entering the market. This is not just incremental growth; it’s a structural reimagining of urban retail landscapes across the country.
In the past four years, 60 international brands have entered India, with new entrants nearly doubling from 14 in 2023 to 27 in 2024. Developers have noticed this trend and are steadily augmenting the supply of REIT-able mall spaces. Over 16.6 million square feet of Grade A mall space is expected across the top seven cities by the end of 2026 alone, with Hyderabad and Delhi-NCR accounting for nearly 65% of this retail expansion.
This surge is being led by listed real estate developers such as Nexus Malls (backed by Blackstone), Phoenix, DLF, Prestige Estates, and Lakeshore Realty. These companies collectively control over 58 operational malls spanning 34 million square feet and have more than 45 new malls in their development pipeline. Currently, only one listed retail REIT exists—Nexus Select Trust, backed by Blackstone—but Anarock Research forecasts that 2-3 new retail REITs will launch within the next three to five years. This will position retail REITs to eventually command ₹60,000-₹80,000 crore of value by 2030.
The growth is no longer limited to major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru. A “consumption explosion” in non-metro cities is widening the retail map. Hyderabad is currently the standout performer, accounting for over 70% of total retail leasing activity. The HITEC City and Kondapur areas are seeing massive retail demand from tech-affluent consumers. Delhi-NCR and Mumbai continue to anchor the market, with Mumbai registering 1.6x year-on-year growth in leasing. These cities are the launchpads for international brands entering India.
Indore, Lucknow, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Kochi, Coimbatore, and Bhubaneswar are now welcoming the first-time institutional developers. These cities have seen a rise in disposable income, improvement in infrastructure, and a growing desire for branded retail and lifestyle experiences. Over the next five years, new retail in Tier-II and Tier-III cities together are expected to exceed 25 million square feet. The number of branded fashion stores in Indore alone increased by 46% in 2024, while the number of Food & Beverage launches in Tier-II cities increased by 25-26%, indicating a growing consumer appetite for high-end items.
The growth in India’s retail real estate is driven by four key pillars:
1. Premiumization and Experience-Led Retail: The “super rich” population with annual incomes of ₹1 crore+ is increasing at a rate of 14-18% per year, and near-affluent households (income of ₹30 lakh+) are growing at 7-11%. Modern malls are now converting into social hubs, dedicating 30-40% of their space to F&B, entertainment, and lifestyle zones, rather than just shopping destinations.
2. International Brand Influx: The entry of global retailers has been rapid, with over 60 international brands coming to India in the last four years, including 27 new ones in 2024. High-end brands like Louis Vuitton, Panerai, and Eleventy, along with lifestyle brands like Lululemon, Bershka, and Nespresso, are heavily pursuing India’s expanding consumer market. This trend has led developers to construct Grade A properties that meet the global operational standards demanded by REIT investors.
3. D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) Brands: Digital-first brands like Snitch, Minimalist, and Rebel Foods are looking for the best physical locations for their products. These brands, driven by data-driven customer insights, strong funding, and high trading densities, have become valuable assets for mall developers.
4. Organized Retail Penetration: Organized retail in India currently accounts for only 12% of the retail market, which is valued at $1 trillion. This is significantly lower than the 80% penetration in developed economies. Over the next ten years, organized retail sales in India are predicted to reach ₹19,70,870 crore ($230 billion) with a 10% CAGR. Malls are evolving from quantity-driven to quality-focused collections.
In the first half of 2025, fashion and apparel leasing accounted for 32% of total retail leasing, followed by home and department stores at 23%, and luxury (primarily led by jewelry brands) at 11%. Fashion and apparel leasing is gradually declining due to the rise of online shopping, while homeware and department stores are emerging as big winners. Luxury brands dominate prime high streets, driven by branded jewelry and premium fashion. Food & Beverage is the fastest-growing segment, as malls add more restaurants and cafes to boost footfall and dwell time. Other categories, including entertainment, hypermarkets, health & personal care, electronics, financial services, e-commerce, and others, make up smaller shares but collectively show how malls are diversifying beyond pure shopping into services and experiences.
By the year 2030, the Indian retail property market will have undergone a complete transformation. It will have shifted from a sector that was not only developer-dominated but also fragmented to a diversified institutional asset class with substantial portfolios controlled by REITs. Grade A malls will make up 60% of total inventory, and Tier-II cities will be almost on par with metros in terms of growth dynamism.
