Nomura Bullish on Prestige Estates: A Pan-India Growth Strategy and Solid Upside Potential

Global brokerage Nomura has initiated coverage on Prestige Estate Projects stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of ₹1,900, which implies a 16.9 per cent upside from Tuesday’s close at ₹1,624.7 per share. The brokerage believes the company is “doing all things right” and transforming itself into a pan-India player, while building a solid annuity-plus-hotel portfolio.

At 9:53 AM, Prestige Estate’s share price was trading 0.34 per cent higher at ₹1630.25 per share. In comparison, the BSE Sensex was up 0.29 per cent at 82,623.09. Year-to-date (Y-T-D), Prestige Estate shares have slipped 3.5 per cent, as compared to Sensex’s rise of 4 per cent.

Nomura’s analysis shows that Prestige Estates’ pan-India growth strategy is superior to peers, and a strong scale-up is likely, particularly in Mumbai and the Delhi National Capital Region (NCR), driven by both mid-income township and luxury projects. The company has also guided for FY26E pre-sales of ₹25,000–27,000 crore, but brokerages expect the developer to surpass estimates with pre-sales of about ₹29,000 crore (70 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y)), 10 per cent higher than guidance.

The company delivered ₹12,100 crore of pre-sales in Q1FY26 alone, and has a launch pipeline of 29 million sq. ft. (msf) with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of ₹29,900 crore in the remaining nine months. Even if only 70–80 per cent of the launch target is achieved, pre-sales from launches could generate ₹9,000–11,000 crore, on top of ₹20,000 crore of available inventory.

Superior execution will help scale Prestige Estate’s annuity and hotel Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) 4-5x over the next 4-5 years, according to Nomura. In the commercial segment, the company expects exit rentals to grow from ₹820 crore in FY26 to ₹385 crore by FY30E. Of this, the brokerage estimates ₹2,200 crore will come from assets in BKC and Mahalaxmi, where the company had a strong start to preleasing.

In the hotel segment, the management expects scope to expand from 1,200 rooms in FY25 to 2,400 in FY27E as high-profile assets in Delhi Aerocity go on stream. Separately, Prestige Estate has the strongest project lineup in the commercial and retail segments as compared to its peers.

The brokerage expects the company to generate annual operating cash flows (OCF) of ₹7,000–8,000 crore, sufficient to fund ₹3,000–3,500 crore annuity capex and ₹4,000–5,000 crore growth capex each year. Net debt and leverage ratios are seen remaining stable, with upside support from a potential listing of the company’s hospitality subsidiary.

Nomura sees Prestige Estate valuations as cheap, given the stock currently trades at a 40 per cent premium to net asset value (NAV), lower than Godrej Properties at 108 per cent. Analysts argue valuations are undemanding given the company’s growth trajectory. Downside risks include a slowdown in the Bangalore residential market or weaker-than-expected leasing momentum in annuity assets.