₹8.3 Lakh Crore in Sales, 0% Volume Growth: India’s Housing Market on Thin Ice
India’s housing market is experiencing a boom in sales value, driven by luxury segments, but faces significant challenges with flat unit sales volumes and a construction slowdown. The market's stability is at risk, warns a recent report.
Housing MarketReal EstateLuxury HomesConstruction SlowdownMarket StabilityReal Estate NewsNov 13, 2025
The report, covering 75 cities and analysing over 32,000 housing projects, finds that while overall sales value jumped 15% year-on-year on the back of soaring luxury purchases and a 3% rise in national housing prices, unit sales volumes remained flat (0% YoY). Simultaneously, the construction pace has fallen to an eight-year low, raising alarms about delivery delays, execution risks, and a potential market imbalance.
Luxury Drives Record Sales Value — Affordable Housing Shrinks
The biggest engine of value growth is the luxury and ultra-luxury market. Key sales trends include:
- Sales value: ₹8,27,764 crore (↑15% YoY)
- Sales volume: 6,54,016 units (0% change YoY)
- New supply: 5,22,955 units (↓10% YoY)
- Unsold inventory: 10,11,681 units (↓7% YoY)
- National Price Index: 201 (↑3% YoY)
Luxury and ultra-luxury homes recorded unprecedented momentum. Category-wise YoY sales growth:
- ₹2–5 crore homes: ↑25%
- ₹5–10 crore homes: ↑19%
- >₹10 crore homes: ↑40% — the fastest-growing segment
- ₹1.5–2 crore segment: ↑20%
- ₹1–1.5 crore segment: ↑11%
Meanwhile, budget categories weakened sharply:
- Affordable ₹30–40 lakh: ↓13%
- ₹40–50 lakh: ↓10%
- Mid-segment ₹50–75 lakh: ↓7%
- ₹10–30 lakh priority homes: ↓21%
“The surge in high-value transactions propelled the total sales value to ₹8.27 lakh crore, masking flat unit sales across the country,” said Pankaj Kapoor, MD, Liases Foras. “The current growth cycle is highly concentrated at the top end of the market.”
Market Has Likely Peaked, Trend Points to Stagnation
The report clearly states that India’s residential market has reached its peak. Q1 FY26 sales: ↓3% quarter-on-quarter, and Q2 FY26 sales: ↓1% quarter-on-quarter. This early slowdown follows record activity in FY24 and FY25.
“Recent quarters show a levelling off in sales, suggesting the market may have peaked and further growth is likely to stagnate,” the report notes.
The Structural Risk: Construction Slowdown
The most critical finding of the Q2 FY-26 report is the notable slowdown in the construction pace across the top eight cities, posing a significant risk to future deliveries and market stability. The percentage of constructed supply against the total marketable supply has dropped dramatically from 75% in 2017 to just 57% in 2025.
“This widening gap between the promises of new launches and physical delivery is a serious concern. It implies slower revenue recognition for builders, increased execution risk, and greater potential for project delays,” the spokesperson added. “While builders’ commitments have soared, their delivery capacity has not kept pace, suggesting the current high sales volumes are not being matched by equivalent housing stock production.” The report draws a historical parallel with 2006–08, when a similar gap occurred amid high interest rates and price surges.
Regional Breakdown: MMR and NCR Continue to Dominate
MMR leads India in sales and pricing strength
- 26% share of India’s total sales value
- 8% YoY growth in unit sales
- Prices ↑3% in Greater Mumbai, ↑4% in Navi Mumbai
NCR shows high value but highest risk
- 45% of unsold inventory classified as “stalled”
- Prices ↑6% in Gurgaon, ↑10% in Ghaziabad
City-level insights
- Chennai: unsold inventory ↑18%, highest overhang at 29 months
- Bangalore: unsold inventory ↑4%
- Kolkata: unsold inventory ↓21%
- Tier-2 cities: sales volume ↓12% but new supply stable (0% YoY)
Months of inventory (Top 8 cities):
- Chennai – 29 months
- Ahmedabad – 25 months
- MMR – 21 months
- NCR – 12 months (lowest)
New Supply Shrinks, but Builders Keep Launching High-End Projects
Top metros saw a 13% YoY drop in new supply, while Tier-2 markets remained flat. City-wise new supply YoY:
- Chennai: ↑74% — strongest expansion
- Hyderabad: ↓31%
- Pune: ↓10%
- MMR: ↓14%
- Ahmedabad: ↑1%
- NCR: ↓4%
Prices Rise Across Most Markets
On a project-level analysis:
- 90% of projects registered price growth between 0–10%
- 5% saw a drop
- Tier-2 cities saw 5% of projects rising above 10%
Top price gainers:
- Ghaziabad: ↑10%
- Bangalore: ↑7%
- Noida/Greater Noida: ↑6%
- Gurgaon: ↑6%
- Delhi: ↑5%
The Indian Housing Market: Peak Valuations and Peak Structural Stress
Positive indicators:
- Record sales value
- Robust luxury demand
- Strong price growth
- Falling unsold inventory
Risks intensifying:
- Construction pace falling sharply
- High concentration of sales at the luxury end
- Stagnating volumes
- Rising inventory overhang in key markets
- High stalled inventory in NCR
- Shrinking affordability across segments
As Liases Foras concludes, “The housing stock being produced is not keeping pace with the strong growth in launches and sales, creating a structural risk for the market.” India’s next phase of real estate growth will depend heavily on whether developers can bridge the widening construction gap — or whether the market’s hidden fault lines begin to slow the momentum of one of its strongest ever cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current state of India's housing market?
India's housing market is experiencing a boom in sales value, primarily driven by the luxury segment, but faces challenges such as flat unit sales volumes and a significant slowdown in construction.
What are the key trends in luxury and ultra-luxury home sales?
Luxury and ultra-luxury home sales have seen significant growth, with the >₹10 crore segment recording the highest increase at 40% year-on-year.
What risks are highlighted in the Liases Foras report?
The report highlights risks such as a sharp slowdown in construction, high concentration of sales at the luxury end, stagnating volumes, and rising inventory overhang in key markets.
How is the market performing in major cities like MMR and NCR?
MMR leads in sales and pricing strength, with an 8% YoY growth in unit sales. NCR, while showing high value, has the highest risk with 45% of unsold inventory classified as 'stalled'.
What is the outlook for future growth in the Indian housing market?
The market's future growth depends on whether developers can bridge the widening construction gap. The current high sales volumes are not being matched by equivalent housing stock production, creating a structural risk.
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