Dubai Real Estate: 60-80% of On-Hold Deals Expected to Close Next Quarter Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

If macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists for another 4–8 weeks, but local employment, credit availability, and flight connectivity remain strong, it is reasonable to expect that 60–80% of Dubai real estate deals currently on hold may close next quarter, albeit some with re-pricing or restructuring. This is according to Morgan Owen, managing director, Middle East and North Africa at ANAROCK Group, in an interview with Hindustan Times Real Estate.

Owen said that Indians are among the largest buyer groups in Dubai’s real estate market, accounting for around 10% of property sales in 2025. If perceptions of regional risk continue to rise, a ‘small but meaningful’ shift of capital from Dubai to India could occur.

Dubai's slowdowns during times of upheavals or crisis, such as the pandemic lockdowns and oil price weakness, have usually led to deal deferrals instead of full cancellations. Once things get clearer, activity picks up again strongly. If macro-economic geopolitical uncertainty lasts for another 4-8 weeks but local employment, credit, and flight connections stay strong, it is reasonable to expect that 60-80% of the deals that are currently on hold will go through in the next quarter, albeit some with re-pricing or restructuring, Owen said.

Past crises show recovery takes time, but rewards early investors. Owen noted that historical trends suggest deferred deals rarely cancel outright. Following the 2009 global financial crisis, Dubai’s property market took several years to recover fully, aided by debt restructuring, regulatory reforms, and mega-events such as Expo 2020.

Similarly, following the Covid-19 pandemic, transactions and confidence recovered within 12–18 months, driven by low prices, visa reforms, and strong villa demand. Investors who deployed capital early during uncertain periods, for example, between 2010 and 2012 or after the Covid recovery, often saw strong long-term returns. Values went up by as much as 165% in some areas between 2020 and 2025. Prime units almost tripled in value in five years.

However, he cautioned that disciplined entry pricing and asset selection were more important than just a ‘buying any dip’ approach.

NRI investments could shift from Dubai to India if regional risks continue. Comparing current market behavior with past shocks, Owen said Dubai’s property ecosystem today is structurally stronger than it was in 2009. After Covid, Dubai’s economy has been exceptionally robust, with a steady stream of inward migration, the benefits of golden visas, and tax breaks all driving demand. The system is far more resilient now to such shocks, but obviously not totally immune.

Regarding NRI capital flows, Owen acknowledged the possibility of some investment redirection. Indians and other NRIs make up one of Dubai's biggest groups of buyers, accounting for about 10% of sales in 2025. They are drawn to the high returns and low taxes. The amount of money that NRIs are putting into Indian real estate is rising quickly. If a perception of regional risks consistently goes up, with the operative term being consistently, not just knee-jerk reactions, a small but significant shift of capital from Dubai to India is possible.

If risk perception increases consistently, a small but significant shift of capital from Dubai to India is possible, he said, adding that Dubai’s structural appeal is likely to prevent abrupt or impulsive reallocations.