GMR Airports Shares Poised to Reach ₹100: Jefferies Sees Strong Q4 and FY26 Outlook
Jefferies maintains a 'Buy' rating on GMR Airports, citing strong Q4 performance and multiple tailwinds, including air traffic growth and real estate monetisation opportunities.
Gmr AirportsJefferiesQ4 PerformanceFy26 OutlookReal Estate MonetisationReal EstateMay 26, 2025
The foreign brokerage has raised its price target to ₹100 from ₹92 earlier. The revised target implies a potential upside of 15% from the stock’s last closing price.
GMR reported an EBITDA beat in Q4, rising 24% year-on-year to ₹1,010 crore as against ₹940 crore estimate. This was driven by a 10% increase in passenger traffic, 13% growth in non-aeronautical revenue, and higher land monetisation income at DIAL (partly a one-off gain).
For FY25, EBITDA grew 27% on-year and is expected to accelerate to over 45% in FY26, as the company turns profitable after many years. Key drivers include the implementation of new tariffs at DIAL, full consolidation of Delhi Duty-Free operations, and continued growth in non-aero revenues.
The Airports Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA) has recently issued the final tariff order for Control Period 4 (CP4) at DIAL, effective April 16, 2025. The new tariffs will improve revenue visibility and are expected to drive strong profitability for both DIAL and GMR’s consolidated operations. Jefferies believes DIAL is likely to turn profitable in FY26.
For FY26, the management said that gross debt may rise by ₹2,400 crore, including ₹1,700 for Bhogapuram Airport capex and ₹600–700 crore at the standalone GAL level to cover the Nagpur concession, Bhogapuram equity contribution, and Delhi Duty-Free Services (DDFS) security payment. However, the net debt increase may be offset by improved internal accruals from the higher aero tariffs.
The Bhogapuram Airport project is expected to be completed before December 2026.
Starting Q2 FY26, GMR Airports (GAL) will manage duty-free operations at both Delhi and Hyderabad airports. Additionally, once the concession agreement with Celebi ends, GAL will also take over cargo operations at DIAL.
Jefferies sees multiple tailwinds for GMR, including consistent air traffic growth, rising travel retail revenues, upward revision in aero tariffs, and opportunities for real estate monetisation.
Reflecting the 100% consolidation of DDFS, the brokerage has raised its FY26 EBITDA estimates by 7–9%.
Out of the four analysts that have coverage on GMR Airports, three of them have a 'Buy' recommendation on the stock, while one has a 'Sell' rating.
Shares of GMR Airports Ltd. are trading 0.30% higher on Monday at ₹87.12. The stock has climbed 11% so far in 2025.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current price target for GMR Airports shares according to Jefferies?
Jefferies has raised its price target for GMR Airports to ₹100 from ₹92, implying a potential upside of 15% from the last closing price.
What were the key drivers of GMR's Q4 EBITDA beat?
The key drivers of GMR's Q4 EBITDA beat include a 10% increase in passenger traffic, 13% growth in non-aeronautical revenue, and higher land monetisation income at DIAL.
What is the expected EBITDA growth for GMR in FY26?
EBITDA is expected to grow over 45% in FY26, driven by the implementation of new tariffs at DIAL, full consolidation of Delhi Duty-Free operations, and continued growth in non-aero revenues.
What are the key tailwinds for GMR Airports according to Jefferies?
Jefferies sees multiple tailwinds for GMR, including consistent air traffic growth, rising travel retail revenues, upward revision in aero tariffs, and opportunities for real estate monetisation.
What is the current trading price of GMR Airports shares?
GMR Airports shares are trading at ₹87.12, up 0.30% on Monday, and have climbed 11% so far in 2025.
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