Haryana, J&K Exit Polls 2024: How Will Election Results Affect the Indian Stock Market?

Recent exit polls in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir predict losses for the BJP, which may impact the Indian stock market. MOFSL's latest strategy note highlights the market's sensitivity to these political changes and economic factors.

Exit PollsStock MarketHaryana ElectionsJammu Kashmir ElectionsBjpReal Estate NewsOct 07, 2024

Haryana, J&K Exit Polls 2024: How Will Election Results Affect the Indian Stock Market?
Real Estate News:The outcomes of the recent state elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir, while not expected to be major market movers, could keep investors on edge. According to exit polls, the BJP is projected to lose in both states, which may have implications for the stock market, particularly the Sensex and Nifty.\n\n Exit Poll Projections in Haryana\nIn Haryana, the Congress party is anticipated to win a full majority with 50-58 seats in the 90-member assembly, compared to 31 seats in the 2019 polls. The ruling BJP, which was aiming for a hat-trick of wins, is projected to get 20-28 seats, down from 40 seats in 2019, as suggested by the CVoter exit poll.\n\n Exit Poll Projections in Jammu & Kashmir\nIn Jammu & Kashmir, the Congress-National Conference alliance is expected to secure 40-48 out of 90 assembly seats. The BJP is projected to win 27-32 seats, while the Mehbooba Mufti-led People's Democratic Party (PDP) may secure 6-12 seats. Other parties and independent candidates are likely to win 6-11 seats.\n\n Market Impact and Analysis\nMOFSL, a prominent financial advisory firm, notes that the stock markets are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between various headwinds and tailwinds. The firm points out that the monetary stimulus from China has led to a wave of tactical FII outflows from India. Additionally, corporate earnings, which enjoyed healthy double-digit growth over the past four years, are now moderating due to increasing commodity prices and the fading benefits from BFSI asset quality improvements.\n\nMarket guru Shankar Sharma compared the Congress to China's stock market, which is showing signs of recovery following Beijing's stimulus push. He tweeted, \

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the exit poll predictions for the Haryana elections?

The exit polls predict that the Congress will win a full majority with 50-58 seats in the 90-member assembly, while the BJP is projected to get 20-28 seats.

How is the market expected to react to the election results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir?

While the results are not expected to be major market movers, they could keep investors on edge due to the projected losses for the BJP and the potential implications for economic policies.

What are the key factors affecting the Indian stock market according to MOFSL?

MOFSL highlights several factors, including monetary stimulus from China, moderating corporate earnings, and high-frequency economic indicators showing a softening in demand.

What are the positive catalysts mentioned by MOFSL for the Indian economy?

MOFSL believes that the ongoing festive season, better-than-expected monsoon, and a pick-up in rural consumption could provide near-term catalysts for economic activity.

Which stocks does MOFSL recommend for the midcap and smallcap segment?

MOFSL recommends Indian Hotels, Angel One, Godrej Properties, Persistent Systems, Metro Brands, PNB Housing, Global Health, Cello World, Dixon Tech, and Five Star Business Finance.

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