ICICI Securities Reiterates BUY on Signature Global, Predicting 61% Upside
ICICI Securities has maintained a BUY rating on real estate developer Signature Global, with a revised target price of INR 1,786. This implies a significant 61% upside potential, driven by strong launch momentum and a robust project pipeline.
Real EstateIcici SecuritiesSignature GlobalStock MarketIpoReal EstateNov 15, 2025
The company, primarily focused on the Gurugram market, is poised for significant growth. After a relatively lighter first half, Signature Global plans to launch projects with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of INR 13,000 to 14,000 crore in the second half of FY26. These launches are primarily in Sector 37D (around 3.6 million square feet) and a large phase in Sector 71 (approximately 4 million square feet). Management expects these projects to re-accelerate pre-sales.
Despite booking sales of INR 4,700 crore in H1 FY26, Signature Global has maintained its FY26 guidance of INR 12,500 crore, implying an additional INR 7,800 crore in H2 bookings. The company’s deep pipeline, with a cumulative GDV of over INR 45,000 crore over FY25–FY28E and around 16 million square feet planned for launch over FY26–FY29E, is a key driver for sustained pre-sales.
ICICI Securities' base case projections include:
- FY26E/FY27E/FY28E Sales Bookings: INR 11,900 Cr / INR 12,700 Cr / INR 13,900 Cr
- Collections are expected to pick up in H2 FY26 as construction milestones are met at high-value projects in Sector 71 and Sector 37D.
- Revenue and profitability are forecasted to ramp up:
- Net Revenue: INR 3,909.6 Cr (FY26E) → INR 5,075.6 Cr (FY27E) → INR 6,590.8 Cr (FY28E)
- EBITDA: INR 740.7 Cr → INR 1,061.2 Cr → INR 1,487.7 Cr
- PAT: INR 565.1 Cr → INR 822.5 Cr → INR 1,164.4 Cr
- EBITDA Margin: 18.9% (FY26E) rising to 22.6% (FY28E)
The subdued performance in H1 FY26, with sales bookings of INR 4,700 crore and collections of INR 1,900 crore, was attributed to lower new launches (GDV INR 4,300 crore vs FY26 launch guidance of INR 17,000 crore). However, the fundamentals remain solid, with H2 catalysts lined up.
The stock is valued using an embedded EBITDA approach rather than a traditional project-NAV method. This reflects the current sector dynamics where developers are reinvesting aggressively while maintaining lean balance sheets. The valuation uses a 7x multiple of the FY25–FY28E average embedded EBITDA of INR 3,640 crore, with an assumed embedded EBITDA margin of around 30%, leading to an equity value consistent with the target price of INR 1,786 per share.
However, there are risks to watch:
- Single-Market Concentration: A slowdown in Gurugram could directly impact pre-sales and cash flows.
- Land Replenishment: Failure to acquire new land at attractive economics could compress medium-term growth.
ICICI Securities’ thesis is straightforward: the heavy launch schedule in H2 FY26 and a visibility-rich pipeline set the stage for stronger pre-sales and cash conversion. This justifies a going-concern, embedded-EBITDA multiple rather than static NAV math. With guidance intact and project milestones poised to unlock collections, the broker’s BUY rating stands, anchored by a target of INR 1,786, implying a 61% upside, while flagging Gurugram cyclicality and land banking as key swing factors.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the revised target price for Signature Global according to ICICI Securities?
ICICI Securities has revised the target price for Signature Global to INR 1,786, up from INR 1,742.
What is the expected upside potential for Signature Global based on the new target price?
The new target price implies a 60.61% upside potential based on the current market price of INR 1,112.
What are the key projects planned for launch in H2 FY26 by Signature Global?
Signature Global plans to launch projects with a Gross Development Value (GDV) of INR 13,000 to 14,000 crore in H2 FY26, primarily in Sector 37D (around 3.6 million square feet) and a large phase in Sector 71 (approximately 4 million square feet).
What is the sales guidance for FY26 maintained by Signature Global?
Signature Global has maintained its FY26 sales guidance of INR 12,500 crore, implying an additional INR 7,800 crore in H2 bookings.
What are the main risks associated with Signature Global's growth strategy?
The main risks include single-market concentration in Gurugram, where a slowdown could impact pre-sales and cash flows, and the need for land replenishment at attractive economics to support medium-term growth.
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