Residential Property Sales in India Set to Rise 5-7% as Demand Stabilizes
Residential real estate developers in India are poised to witness steady growth in sales volume by 5-7% and average property prices by 4-6% in the current and next financial years, according to Crisil Ratings. This growth follows three years of strong recovery post-pandemic, with demand stabilizing and a shift towards premium and luxury housing segments.
Residential Real EstateProperty SalesCrisil RatingsPremium HousingLuxury HousingReal EstateJul 01, 2025
Sales volumes across India’s top seven cities—Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), National Capital Region (NCR), Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru—are projected to grow by 5 to 7 percent, while average property prices are expected to increase by 4 to 6 percent.
Although more new homes are being launched than sold, leading to a slight rise in unsold inventory, developers are in a strong financial position. This means that the increase in inventory is unlikely to cause significant problems, stated the Crisil report. Between fiscal years 2022 and 2025, residential sales grew at an average annual rate of about 26 percent. Around 14 percent of this growth came from higher demand, while the rest came from price increases.
Last year, demand remained flat due to high property prices and delays in new project launches in some cities. These delays were caused by state elections and changes in property registration rules. However, demand is expected to pick up again this year and next, helped by lower interest rates, more stable price growth, and strong interest in premium and luxury housing. The removal of earlier obstacles to new launches is also expected to support this rebound.
Premium and luxury homes are becoming increasingly popular. In 2020, these segments made up only 9 percent of new projects, but by 2024, that number rose to 37 percent. This shift is driven by rising incomes and growing demand for larger, more comfortable living spaces. These segments are expected to make up 38 to 40 percent of new launches in 2025 and 2026. As the growth in these segments evens out, average home prices are expected to rise steadily at 4 to 6 percent, instead of the sharp increases seen over the past two years.
“The premium and luxury segments in the top seven cities have witnessed a significant surge, with their share of launches increasing from 9% in calendar year 2020 to 37% in 2024,” says Gautam Shahi, Director, Crisil Ratings. He added that this can be attributed to rising incomes and urbanization, which have fuelled the desire for larger, more luxurious living spaces. As the trend of premiumization continues, the premium and luxury segments are expected to account for 38-40% of total launches in calendar years 2025 and 2026.
In contrast, affordable and mid-range housing will likely make up a smaller share of new launches. Affordable housing is expected to account for only 10 to 12 percent, and mid-range for 19 to 20 percent of new projects in 2025 and 2026. This is a significant drop from their 2020 shares of 30 percent and 40 percent, respectively. Higher land and construction costs have made these segments less profitable for developers.
To meet the expected rise in demand, developers have increased the number of new project launches in the past three years. As a result, supply has exceeded demand, and this trend is likely to continue over the next two years. This will lead to a slight increase in inventory levels, rising from about 2.7 to 2.9 years in the past to around 2.9 to 3.1 years going forward. Despite this, developers are collecting payments on time and completing projects efficiently. Many are also shifting to asset-light models, such as joint ventures and shared land development, which require less upfront investment. These factors have helped developers reduce their debt significantly.
Another factor supporting their financial strength is the increase in equity funding. Many developers have raised money through qualified institutional placements (QIPs), with QIP funds covering 24 percent of their total debt last year, up from 13 to 16 percent in the previous three years. The improvement in cash flow from operations—the money left after paying for construction, operating expenses, and land costs—has also strengthened developers' financial health. Their debt-to-cash flow ratio is expected to improve to 1.1 to 1.3 times this year and next, compared to 1.2 to 1.5 times over the last two years. This is a significant improvement from fiscal 2020, when the ratio was as high as 5.6 times.
Going forward, it will be important for developers to keep debt at low to moderate levels and to manage inventory carefully. As long as they stay financially disciplined, their position in the market should remain stable, said the Crisil report.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected growth in residential property sales volumes in India's top cities?
Sales volumes across India’s top seven cities—Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), National Capital Region (NCR), Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kolkata, and Bengaluru—are projected to grow by 5 to 7 percent.
How has the demand for premium and luxury housing changed in recent years?
The share of premium and luxury housing in new projects has increased from 9% in 2020 to 37% in 2024, driven by rising incomes and urbanization.
What factors are contributing to the expected rise in demand for residential properties?
Lower interest rates, more stable price growth, and strong interest in premium and luxury housing, along with the removal of earlier obstacles to new launches, are contributing to the expected rise in demand.
How are developers managing their financial positions despite the increase in unsold inventory?
Developers are collecting payments on time, completing projects efficiently, and shifting to asset-light models like joint ventures and shared land development. They are also raising more equity funding, which has helped reduce their debt significantly.
What is the expected impact on average home prices in the next two years?
Average home prices are expected to rise steadily at 4 to 6 percent, as the growth in premium and luxury segments normalizes.
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