The Maharashtra Gambit: Who Will Win the State?
The Maharashtra election is crucial for both the Congress and the BJP. The outcome will significantly impact the national political narrative and individual party fortunes.
Maharashtra ElectionCongressBjpMaha Vikas AghadiMahayutiReal Estate MaharashtraOct 27, 2024
The Congress fortune seems to be lurching from election to election. A win gives its leader, Rahul Gandhi, the credibility he needs, while a loss has the detractors baring their fangs again. Rahul desperately needs a string of wins. More importantly, he has to deal with the skeptics within his party. It’s not just the BJP he is dealing with; he first has to convince the allies in the I.N.D.I.A bloc that he has what it takes. The Lok Sabha results gave him a boost in credibility, even though a closer look reveals mixed results in states where the Congress took on the BJP one-on-one. However, in states where the Congress was backed by its allies, the I.N.D.I.A bloc performed well, such as in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and even West Bengal, though the Congress was not in an alliance with the TMC there.
The I.N.D.I.A bloc allies have already changed their body language towards the Congress, sensing its diminishing bargaining power. For example, Akhilesh Yadav, the Samajwadi Party chief, announced candidates for 6 of the 10 bypolls due in Uttar Pradesh without consulting the Congress. This indicates that Akhilesh would have done the same had the results been different and the Congress swept Haryana. He is miffed at the fact that the Congress did not offer the Samajwadi Party any seats in Haryana but still expects its ally to yield seats in Uttar Pradesh. This is not how coalition politics works. The Congress Party’s allies in Maharashtra are showing the same sense of impatience. The Congress is contesting the state polls along with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP under the banner of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The MVA had contested the recent Lok Sabha polls under the same banner, wherein the Congress won 13 seats out of 17, the Shiv Sena won 9 out of 21, and Pawar’s NCP won 8 out of 10. Despite the Congress having a better strike rate, Uddhav Thackeray is staking a claim for the CM’s post. Local Congress leaders in the state are against this, claiming that the Congress is a pan-Maharashtra party, while the Shiv Sena is restricted to certain pockets around Mumbai. However, rumors suggest that privately, Rahul has assured Uddhav that he would be the CM if the alliance wins. If true, this shows Rahul’s larger goal is to keep the MVA together and focus on defeating the BJP rather than furthering his party’s interests. This could be the need of the hour. Should the alliance win, Sharad Pawar’s ambitions cannot be ruled out, as this could be his last election and his last chance to ensure his daughter’s political future.
But these are calculations for later, and that too if the alliance manages to wrest the state away from the BJP-led Mahayuti bloc. Currently, the MVA has decided to contest an equal number of seats, with each party getting 85 (even though the Congress initially demanded 100 based on its Lok Sabha performance). The rest will be divided among allies and independents. On the other side, the Mahayuti alliance, with Eknath Shinde as the sitting Chief Minister and Ajit Pawar’s NCP and the BJP, is also in contention. Shinde’s party won 7 of the 15 Lok Sabha seats it contested, while Ajit Pawar won only one out of 4. The BJP had an abysmal showing, winning only 9 of the 28 seats it contested. Despite this, the BJP seems to have the upper hand in seat sharing, with sources claiming that the seat sharing formula gives the BJP around 100 to 150 seats, the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena about 85-90 seats, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 50 to 55 seats. While the alliance is fighting with Eknath Shinde as the sitting Chief Minister, if the Mahayuti wins, there is a possibility that the BJP may replace him with its own candidate. Some argue against this, saying that the current model suits the BJP, with Eknath Shinde as the face but all key ministries with the party.
Once the seat sharing is finalized, it will be time to sharpen strategy. Being in government, the Mahayuti has the advantage and has already announced a slew of welfare schemes for all sections, especially women, with its Ladli Behna Yojana. It will be interesting to see the tone and tenor of the Congress campaign and the kind of issues Rahul Gandhi raises in the state that houses the country’s financial capital. In many ways, the outcome of the Maharashtra election will impact the national political narrative and the fortunes of individual parties, including the shifting equations within the I.N.D.I.A bloc and the BJP’s dependence on the RSS.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Maharashtra election crucial for the Congress?
Winning the Maharashtra election is crucial for the Congress as it provides Rahul Gandhi with the credibility he needs and helps him deal with skeptics within the party. A loss would further diminish his standing and could strengthen the BJP's narrative of a continued winning streak.
What is the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)?
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is an alliance formed by the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP to contest the Maharashtra state elections. The MVA aims to defeat the BJP-led Mahayuti bloc.
Who are the key players in the Mahayuti bloc?
The Mahayuti bloc is led by the BJP and includes Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. Eknath Shinde is the sitting Chief Minister, and the alliance is currently in power in Maharashtra.
What welfare schemes has the Mahayuti announced?
The Mahayuti alliance has announced a series of welfare schemes, including the Ladli Behna Yojana, which is designed to provide benefits to women and aligns with similar schemes in other states like Madhya Pradesh.
How will the outcome of the Maharashtra election impact national politics?
The outcome of the Maharashtra election will significantly impact the national political narrative. It will affect the fortunes of individual parties, the shifting equations within the I.N.D.I.A bloc, and the BJP’s dependence on the RSS. The state houses the country’s financial capital, making it a key battleground.
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