The Perils of Hydro-Politics: India's Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty
India's recent suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan highlights the growing trend of treating water as a strategic asset in South Asia, where climate change and geopolitical tensions are exacerbating the risks of environmental and humanitarian crises.
Indus Water TreatyClimate ChangeSouth AsiaHydropoliticsWater SharingReal EstateMay 18, 2025
Real Estate:In an unprecedented move, India recently suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, citing cross-border terrorism. This decision is part of a series of escalations that have pushed the two countries to the brink of war. The treaty suspension reflects a growing regional trend: South Asian countries are increasingly treating water as a strategic asset rather than a shared resource amid rising mistrust, climate stress, and geopolitical competition. The region is home to nearly a quarter of the global population and relies on huge transboundary rivers fed by Himalayan glaciers, often referred to as the 'Third Pole' of freshwater reserves. A breakdown in water diplomacy could trigger environmental collapse, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical instability. The weaponization of water must be urgently addressed as a global climate justice issue. A flashpoint occurred in August 2024 when devastating floods affected nearly 5.8 million people in Bangladesh. Some Bangladeshi officials accused India of releasing excess water from a large dam upstream without warning. India denied responsibility, citing extreme rainfall and standard dam operations. Nevertheless, the incident reignited longstanding tensions between the two countries. Complicating matters further is China's recent approval of the construction of the world's largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, which becomes the Brahmaputra in India. This massive project has raised alarm about China's ability to exert control upstream and the ecological risks for India and Bangladesh downstream. China hasn't signed formal water-sharing agreements with its neighbors, but its growing presence in regional water infrastructure signals a dramatic shift in South and East Asian hydro-politics. Recent climatic trends are making transboundary rivers an increasing focus of geopolitical friction. These trends include accelerated glacier melt, erratic monsoon patterns, and intensifying extreme weather. While melting glaciers will temporarily boost the flow of rivers, the long-term prognosis is bleak. If emissions and warming trends continue, many glacier-fed rivers, including the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, could see dramatically reduced flows by the end of the century. This will directly affect hundreds of millions of people who depend on them. The crisis is being intensified by changes in the Himalayas. The region is warming faster than the global average, with a shift from snowfall to rainfall that disrupts the timing and volume of water that flows down from the mountains to the fields and cities below. At the same time, unsustainable groundwater extraction has pushed South Asia's reserves of underground water toward collapse, threatening both food and water security. A collapse or suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could set a dangerous precedent. The threat is less about India cutting off water flows—an unlikely and technically challenging act—and more about the erosion of trust, transparency, and data sharing. One of the treaty's most valuable features has been the routine sharing of data on things like water levels, river flow, and dam operations. Pakistan needs this data to forecast floods and droughts, plan its irrigation, generate hydropower effectively, and manage its drinking water. Yet India is indicating it will no longer honor these obligations. India's strained water relations are not limited to Pakistan. Bangladesh and Nepal have often felt sidelined or pressured in negotiations, and India's indication that it may reconsider longstanding treaties raises concerns in both countries. This is especially the case as the Ganges Water Treaty nears its 2026 expiration. The vast Ganges river flows through India and irrigates much of Bangladesh, and the treaty guarantees Bangladesh a minimum river flow. Other key agreements, such as the Mahakali Treaty and Kosi river accord with Nepal, and the Teesta water-sharing deal with Bangladesh, remain largely unimplemented, breeding mistrust. These failures undermine confidence in regional water diplomacy and cast doubt on India's commitment to equitable cooperation. None of this is helped by India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh all continuing to rely on outdated irrigation methods that mean they use more water than necessary. As climate change intensifies floods, droughts, and glacial melt, there is an urgent need to reform existing water treaties to reflect present-day climate, hydrological, and geopolitical realities. The Indus Waters Treaty, negotiated in the 1960s before the emergence of modern climate science, no longer accounts for these transformations. Indeed, most water treaties in the region remain rooted in technocratic, engineering-centric frameworks that fail to address extreme climate variability and its cascading impacts. The upcoming expiration of the Ganges Water Treaty and the pending negotiation of other basin agreements present a critical opportunity to rethink water governance in South Asia. Though the Indus flows through India before Pakistan, in other basins, India is downstream. This is the case with the Brahmaputra, where it demands upstream cooperation from China. Undermining the Indus treaty could weaken India's own position in future negotiations and strain its relations with Nepal and Bangladesh, while giving China more influence in South Asian hydro-politics. China is already expanding its footprint by offering billions in loans to Bangladesh and strengthening ties with Nepal, particularly around water infrastructure. Weaponizing water is a perilous strategy that may backfire. The weakening of water diplomacy in South Asia is not just a regional threat; it endangers global climate security. In the face of escalating climate change impacts and recurring disasters, updating transboundary agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty, Ganga Water Treaty, and Kosi and Teesta accords is no longer optional—it is an urgent necessity with enormous consequences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Indus Waters Treaty? A: The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing agreement signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, mediated by the World Bank. It governs the distribution of water from the Indus River system, which includes the Indus and its tributaries. Q: Why did India suspend the Indus Waters Treaty? A: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty in response to cross-border terrorism, citing the need to take strong action against Pakistan. This move is part of a series of escalations between the two countries. Q: How does climate change affect water resources in South Asia? A: Climate change in South Asia is causing accelerated glacier melt, erratic monsoon patterns, and intensifying extreme weather. These changes are disrupting the timing and volume of water flows, leading to potential water scarcity and increased geopolitical tensions. Q: What are the potential consequences of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty? A: Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty could lead to a breakdown in water diplomacy, triggering environmental collapse, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical instability. It may also erode trust, transparency, and data sharing between India and Pakistan. Q: What role does China play in South Asian hydro-politics? A: China's approval of the world's largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet has raised concerns about its ability to exert control upstream, affecting downstream countries like India and Bangladesh. China's growing presence in regional water infrastructure signals a significant shift in South and East Asian hydro-politics.
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