Top Stocks for Long-Term Investment: Pankaj Pandey of ICICI Securities Picks Tata Steel, ITC Hotels, and More
Pankaj Pandey, head of research at ICICI Securities, shares his top stock picks for long-term investment, including Tata Steel, ITC Hotels, and Aditya Birla Real Estate. Discover why these stocks are poised for growth.
Longterm InvestmentStock PicksIcici SecuritiesMarket OutlookPankaj PandeyReal EstateJul 06, 2025
Apart from the quarterly results, the India-US trade deal, monsoon progress, and macroeconomic indicators in the US will significantly influence the Indian stock market in the near term. Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities, remains constructive on the Indian stock market. He notes, "In the backdrop of major economies witnessing higher inflation, higher bond yields, and lower growth, India’s growth-inflation dynamics stand out with lower inflation, lower bond yields, and improving/stable growth, supporting a positive equity outlook going forward."
Pandey expects Nifty EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11.8 per cent over FY25-27E. "Upgrading our multiples (function of downward interest rate cycle & inclusion of new age businesses in Index), we retain our 12-month rolling Nifty target at 27,000, which is nearly 22 times PE on FY27E. Corresponding Sensex target is pegged at nearly 90,000, offering steady upside potential," said Pandey.
Stock Picks for the Long-Term
Tata Steel | Previous Close: ₹163.01 | Target Price: ₹200
Tata Steel, the second-largest crude steel producer in India, is aligning its growth path with the government's target to achieve 300 MT steel capacity by 2030. After the Kalinganagar's 5 MT expansion, it aims to increase its steel capacity from 26.6 MT to nearly 40 MT by 2030. "With a strong profitability outlook at its Indian operations post-domestic steel price hike following safeguard duty imposition, a benign raw material price outlook (coking coal), and cost optimisation initiatives envisaged at its European operations, it is well poised to clock record profitability of 28 per cent CAGR EBITDA over FY25-27E," said Pandey.
ITC Hotels | Previous Close: ₹220.64 | Target Price: ₹261
ITC Hotels is the second-largest hotel company in India with 140+ properties and 13,382 rooms. The company plans to expand its room inventory to 20,000+ with 220+ properties by 2030 under an asset-light strategy (owned: managed mix will be 30:70). The favourable food and banquet mix at 60:40 and strong presence in the luxury hotel segment will help ITC Hotels achieve revenue and PAT growth of 15 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively, over FY25-28E.
Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL) | Previous Close: ₹2,301.70 | Target Price: ₹2,850
ABREL is the real estate arm of Aditya Birla Group. The company has grown its pre-sales at a CAGR of 62 per cent over FY22-FY25. It targets annual pre-sales of ₹15,000 crore in FY28 at 23 per cent CAGR over FY25-FY28. The project pipeline exceeds ₹52,600 crore, with potential project additions over the next three years. "The divestment of its paper business, which had been reeling under tough times, is expected to help in a single-minded focus on expanding its realty business, apart from bringing operational efficiency, manpower management, fixed cost reductions, etc.," said Pandey.
HEG | Previous Close: ₹505.45 | Target Price: ₹600
HEG, a leading graphite electrode manufacturer in India with a capacity of 1 lakh tonnes, stands to benefit from industry tailwinds, including more than 100 million tonnes of EAF capacity addition globally (excluding China). Recent plant closures by global peers are also likely to support electrode prices in the near term. Furthermore, HEG’s entry into the emerging graphite anode market bodes well for its future growth. "We maintain a positive view of HEG, supported by the global shift towards EAF-based steelmaking and ongoing industry consolidation," said Pandey.
PSP Projects | Previous Close: ₹778.05 | Target Price: ₹950
PSP Projects is likely to be a key beneficiary of Adani Group orders. "We expect PSP to emerge as an EPC vehicle for the buildings segment, with strong growth visibility," said Pandey. PSP expects over ₹10,000 crore orders from Adani Group over the next two years, including its intention to participate in Dharavi redevelopment EPC and Navi Mumbai Township. "Given the robust pipeline and inflow potential, we expect a strong revenue CAGR of nearly 22 per cent over FY25-27E. We expect margins to inch up to 8.9 per cent and 9.5 per cent in FY26 and FY27, respectively. Strong topline growth with stable margins and lower interest expense is likely to drive 82.2 per cent earnings CAGR over FY25-27E," said Pandey.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors are currently affecting the Indian stock market?
The Indian stock market is currently affected by factors such as uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, stretched market valuation, and foreign capital outflow. These factors have contributed to the market being rangebound.
What is Pankaj Pandey's outlook on the Indian stock market?
Pankaj Pandey, head of research at ICICI Securities, remains constructive on the Indian stock market. He expects Nifty EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11.8 per cent over FY25-27E and forecasts a 12-month rolling Nifty target of 27,000 and a Sensex target of 90,000.
Why is Tata Steel a good long-term investment?
Tata Steel is aligning its growth path with the government's target to achieve 300 MT steel capacity by 2030. The company aims to increase its steel capacity from 26.6 MT to nearly 40 MT by 2030. Strong profitability outlook, cost optimization, and a benign raw material price outlook make it a promising long-term investment.
What is the growth strategy of ITC Hotels?
ITC Hotels plans to expand its room inventory to 20,000+ with 220+ properties by 2030 under an asset-light strategy (owned: managed mix will be 30:70). The company's strong presence in the luxury hotel segment and favourable food and banquet mix are expected to drive revenue and PAT growth.
What is the target for Aditya Birla Real Estate's pre-sales?
Aditya Birla Real Estate (ABREL) targets annual pre-sales of ₹15,000 crore in FY28 at a 23 per cent CAGR over FY25-FY28. The company has a project pipeline of over ₹52,600 crore and potential project additions over the next three years.
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