Uncertain Future for MVA as Partners Forge New Alliances

MUMBAI, Dec. 27 -- The future of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), formed to keep the BJP out of power in the state, appears uncertain. Two of its three primary constituents - the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) - have stitched together alliances of convenience, while the Congress is going it alone in several civic bodies. The result: in most of the 29 municipal corporations going to the polls on January 15, the three parties are not fighting together as the MVA coalition.

In the most crucial civic body, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), Uddhav Thackeray has teamed up with his cousin Raj's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) rather than the Congress. Ironically, on paper, the Congress is stronger than the MNS in Mumbai, where it has one MP and three MLAs. Moreover, it won 31 seats in the last BMC elections, in 2017. In contrast, the MNS has no MPs or MLAs and bagged only 7 seats in the last civic elections.

However, after the split in the Shiv Sena in 2022, Thackeray has chosen to cement his position in electoral constituencies dominated by Marathi-speaking voters. He felt an alliance with Raj, “to fight for the interests of Marathi people,” would have more appeal than an alliance with the Congress. Initially, Thackeray was keen on including the Congress in the alliance but went with the MNS when the Congress refused to be part of any coalition that included the MNS.

“Congress leaders in Mumbai felt partnering with the MNS would alienate North Indian voters. Our argument was that North Indians are now largely voting for the BJP rather than the Congress,” said a Sena (UBT) MP in Mumbai, who was keen on getting Congress on board. “They also felt that seat-sharing between four parties - Sena (UBT), MNS, Congress, and NCP (SP) - would not give their party workers much scope.”

The Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance will contest the municipal elections in Mumbai and eight other civic bodies in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Nashik, Pune, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, among others. The NCP (SP) too has forged an alliance based on convenience. Pawar is teaming up with nephew Ajit Pawar's NCP in Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad. In the rest of the state, he has allowed his party units to forge alliances with any party except the BJP.

This has forced the Congress to go solo in places where its MVA partners are looking elsewhere for alliances. Mumbai, whose civic budget is the largest in the country, is one of these places. The Congress tried to forge an alliance with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), which has a following among socially backward communities. However, Ambedkar is asking for more seats than the Congress is willing to concede.